Projection system, yet again, takes dim view of the Royals’ chances

A computer program designed to predict the Major League Baseball season projects the Kansas City Royals to be the worst team in the American League in 2017.

Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections on Tuesday. The system foresees the Royals winning a mere 71 games.

Important caveat: PECOTA has been wrong before. In 2015, PECOTA thought the Royals would only win 72 games. Instead, the Royals racked up 95 wins and won the World Series. The Royals also outperformed their PECOTA projections in 2013 and 2014.

(The original version of PECOTA was designed by Nate Silver, now the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight. Silver left the keys to PECOTA with Baseball Prospectus, where he worked as an analyst before concentrating on politics.)

To their credit, the writers at Baseball Prospectus acknowledge that PECOTA has been too bearish on the Royals in the past. Craig Brown, who covers the Royals for Baseball Prospectus, notes that the system appears to have “a difficult time projecting the net effect of defense and a good bullpen,” two keys to the Royals’ success in 2014 and 2015.

In 2016, PECOTA projected the Royals to win 76 games. The team performed more in line with the gloomy forecast and finished with 81 wins.

PECOTA thinks the 2017 Royals lack the offense to be competitive. Last year’s club scored 4.17 runs a game, better than just two other American League teams. 

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