Forecast: 2010 Royals will not lose 100!

The 2010 Kansas City Royals will finish in last place in the American League Central, according to a forecasting system.

Baseball Prospectus, which is like a cross between Bill Simmons and the RAND Corporation, has developed a player projection system called PECOTA. The system predicts the performance of hitters and pitchers based on their previous work, body type, injury history and what comparable players have done as they aged. (Make propeller-head jokes if you want, but I’ve seen BP’s annual player guide in the office of an American League general manager.)

The system has taken a look at the Royals roster and shrugged. PECOTA projects KC to complete a 74-88 record, which would improve on the 2009 season but is still not still very good.

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