Five Thirty Eight: Royals favored to win World Series

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Despite last year’s World Series appearance, the Kansas City Royals began the 2015 season with 33/1 odds of winning the World Series. Vegas gave the Cleveland Indians and the Chicago White Sox better odds. 

Now here we are in October, and the Royals are up 2-0 on the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series. In the National League Championship Series, the New York Mets are up 2-0 on the Chicago Cubs. 

Things might get difficult for the Royals now that the series has moved to Toronto; the Blue Jays are a very good team. But the statistical analysis website Five Thirty Eight — run by Nate Silver, best known for correctly predicting 49 out of 50 states’ electoral results in the 2008 election and all 50 in 2012 — reports today that its math has the Royals as the favored team to win the World Series this year. The Royals are 79 percent likely to make the World Series, and 43 percent likely to win it. The Mets are the second favorite — 76 percent likely to make the World Series, and 32 percent likely to win it. Plus, there’s this: 

And if a Mets-Royals World Series does happen, Elo [Five Thirty Eight’s ratings system] gives the Royals the edge, with a 58 percent chance of winning the hypothetical matchup. Not only would they hold home-field advantage thanks to the American League’s All-Star Game victory, but Elo also thinks Kansas City is the better team — particularly in the universe in which it wins the ALCS, because that will have meant the Royals won two more games against Toronto, currently rated as MLB’s best team.

Silver has been wrong before, of course. 

Game time tonight is 7:07 p.m. Cueto’s on the mound. Go, Royals.