Your Unofficial Guide to the 2016 Big 12 Basketball Tournament
The truth is out there — and it’s hard to swallow for anyone who doesn’t wear crimson and blue and worship a mythical blue bird. The truth is that the Kansas Jayhawks this month clinched a 12th straight regular-season conference championship. The truth is that this was supposed to be the year when KU’s decade-plus of dominance maybe met its end. Oklahoma returned the best player in the country, Buddy Hield. Iowa State lost the Mayor but returned All-American senior Georges Niang and phenomenal junior point guard Monte Morris. Bob Huggins put together a West Virginia team capable of wearing down just about any opponent. Texas retooled with innovative coach Shaka Smart. (Baylor remains, well, Baylor.)
But the truth is, none of those teams was able to oust the Jayhawks. Throw out the regular season, though, because for the next four days, anything goes in Kansas City. The Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament, March 9-12, is a place for drama — as in the last two years, when the comeback Cyclones hoisted the tourney trophy and cut the nets at the Sprint Center. Can the Clones three-peat? Will KU claim a tourney title, too? Or is it Hield’s year? Can the Mountaineers exhaust the opposition? Can Baylor coach Scott Drew somehow time-out his way to a title? Or will Smart shock the Big 12 and claim a title? Or is this the Cinderella year in which Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State or TCU walks out of KC with the title and automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament? Well, probably not that last one. But almost anything is possible in KC, so get ready.
The truth is out there. We’ll know it Saturday night.
NCAA Tournament Watch Legend
RPI: Ratings Percentage Index
SOS: Strength of Schedule
Locked In
KANSAS (27-4, 15-3) RPI: 1 SOS: 9
PROJECTED NCAA SEED: NO. 1
Kansas, vulnerable? Nah, bro. The Jayhawks dropped an early season game to Michigan State, but there’s no shame in losing to the Fighting Izzos. This year’s squad boasts an impressive record, with nine wins over RPI Top 25 teams and just three losses in conference play. KU opened Big 12 play with big consecutive wins against Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma, beating the Sooners in a triple-overtime thriller that was one of the best college games of the year. Yes, that 86-67 blowout at the hands of Oklahoma State was a shocker, but KU hasn’t dropped a game since January 26’s road loss to Iowa State. That’s 11 straight wins — and a shot of momentum heading into Kansas City and beyond.
WEST VIRGINIA (24-7, 13-5) RPI: 10 SOS: 28
PROJECTED NCAA SEED: NO. 3
The Mountaineers play a furious, 40-minutes-of-hell defense. They’re aggressive with the press. They hustle. They steal better than anyone in the league. They foul. And they can shoot. But even as they wear you out, they do have a weakness: Oklahoma and Texas exposed West Virginia as a team that struggles against high-quality guards. The Sooners and the Longhorns both swept the Mountaineers. Still, West Virginia’s bruising play could earn a tourney crown. They have plenty of wins over the likes of Kansas and sweeping Iowa State and Baylor. Just hope that Bob Huggins’ head doesn’t explode.
OKLAHOMA (24-6, 12-6) RPI: 5 SOS: 20
PROJECTED NCAA SEED: NO. 2
The best player in the league wears crimson and … white. Buddy Hield is nothing short of phenomenal, and the Sooners remain one of the deadliest teams in the league, having built a 6-5 record against RPI Top 25 teams. If anyone was supposed to oust KU, it was Lon Kruger’s Sooners. Getting swept by the Jayhawks and losing to cellar dweller Kansas State and bubble team Texas Tech preserved KU’s dominance. Still, if the Sooners are hitting their shots — and they’ve knocked down more 3-pointers than any other team in the conference, by far — no one is safe. If they’re off, they could be headed back to Norman early.
BAYLOR (21-10, 10-8) RPI: 27 SOS: 10
PROJECTED NCAA SEED: NO. 6
Scott Drew loves his timeouts. He’ll need them if he’s going to regroup his Baylor Bears, who are just 4-10 against RPI Top 25 teams. The good news: Baylor has owned Iowa State, scoring another victory in Hilton Coliseum this season and sweeping the Cyclones. But that’s the best win on a résumé otherwise notable only for victories over Vanderbilt and on the road at Texas. Baylor is one of the best passing teams in the country (18.6 assists per game), and Rico Gathers is a beast on the boards, so maybe Baylor could find itself hanging around Kansas City into the weekend.
IOWA STATE (21-10, 10-8) RPI: 21 SOS: 14
PROJECTED NCAA SEED: NO. 4
The Mayor has stepped down. Fred Hoiberg left his alma mater to go pro — again — taking over as head coach of the Chicago Bulls. Fred (as he’s known in Cyclone Nation) left new coach Steve Prohm a talented but not-very-deep roster. Want to beat Iowa State? Attack the Clones’ basket (Iowa State goes about seven deep, and they don’t like to foul). Also: Score more than 80 points. The Cyclones went just 5-7 against RPI Top 25 teams, so they’re hit and miss against the upper-echelon teams. But those wins were big, downing Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech. What to expect? High scoring, not a lot of defense (or rebounding), and nail-biter games. And if you’re an I-State fan, pray you don’t go to overtime.
TEXAS (20-11, 11-7) RPI: 23 SOS: 3
PROJECTED NCAA SEED: NO. 6
Texas lost senior forward Cameron Ridley to a broken foot early in the season, but the senior center might be back in time for the Kansas City trip. Texas has hung tough under the leadership of new coach Shaka Smart. Texas is .500 against RPI Top 25 teams, with wins over North Carolina, Iowa State and Oklahoma, a sweep of West Virginia and a road win over Baylor. The only negative on the Horns’ slate is a loss at TCU. Ouch.
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On the Bubble
TEXAS TECH (18-11, 8-9) RPI: 25 SOS: 1
PROJECTED NCAA SEED: NO. 8
The Red Raiders have have built a
tournament-worthy résumé with a string of consecutive wins over Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma. Throw in a dubya at home against Texas, and Big 12 Coach of the Year Tubby Smith’s crew has made giant leaps over last year’s team, which didn’t get a sniff of March Madness.
Must Win it All
KANSAS STATE (16-15, 5-13) RPI: 83 SOS: 22
Kansas State picked up its biggest win of the season by beating then–No. 1 Oklahoma in the Octagon of Doom. The season hasn’t gotten much better than that moment. The Wildcats come to Kansas City in need of a winning tournament if they’re going to get a whiff of Selection Sunday.
OKLAHOMA STATE (12-19, 3-15) RPI: 160 SOS: 54
Burn it down, Pokes. This Oklahoma State basketball season was pretty much a total loss once leading scorer Phil Forte III went down with a season-ending elbow injury, but add in the loss of Freshman of the Year Jawun Evans to a shoulder injury, and it’s a Dumpster fire. The Cowboys did dominate a Kansas Jayahwks team that failed to mentally make the trip to Stillwater. Still, Okie State needs a magical run to dance.
TCU (11-20, 2-16) RPI: 183 SOS: 50
Uh, better luck next year. The best thing to be said about the Horned Frogs is that they beat Texas and have an awesome mascot. TCU fans, get your barbecue fix quick. Your stay in KC — if you even made the trip — won’t last long.
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Players to Watch
BUDDY HIELD, OKLAOMA
BIG 12 PLAYER OF THE YEAR
For the second year going, Buddy Hield is the best player in the Big 12. Hield makes an obscene 4.1 3-pointers per game (at a ridiculous clip of 47.3 percent from behind the arc), and he’s leading the conference in scoring with 25.1 points per contest. He’s a relentless competitor, and he’ll be the driving force behind Oklahoma’s tourney run.
JAYSEAN PAIGE, WEST VIRGINIA
BIG 12 SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
Taking over for Juwan Staten isn’t easy, but Jaysean Paige has more than filled in despite coming off the bench. Paige leads the Mountaineers in scoring (14.3 points per game). His aggressiveness on the offensive end is matched only by his defensive pressure (1.4 steals per game). He’s the key to the Mountaineers journey to the tourney finale.
DEONTE BURTON, IOWA STATE
BIG 12 NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR
Dude can dunk. The transfer from Marquette throws down with violence. The 6-foot-4, 240-pound junior forward was a unanimous selection for conference newcomer of the year with averages of 10 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game.
PRINCE IBEH, TEXAS
BIG 12 DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Thrust into a starting role with Cam Ridley injured, Prince Ibeh became a defensive roadblock for the Longhorns. Ibeh averages 2 blocks a game, and he’ll be returning shots to sender — like the seven he swatted against Kansas — if he can stay out of foul trouble.
PERRY ELLIS, KANSAS
As Perry Ellis goes, so go the Jayhawks. If Ellis is rock chalkin’, the Jayhawks may be taking home some extra hardware from Kansas City. The 6-foot-8 senior forward is leading KU in scoring (16.5 points), and in KU’s high-low offense, he’ll be the focus on the low post. Ride Ellis and KU could be cutting nets.
FRANK MASON III AND DEVONTE’ GRAHAM, KANSAS
Backcourts win ballgames in the Big 12. And Bill Self has as good a duo as any in Frank Mason III and Devonte’ Graham. Mason, a junior, and Graham, a sophomore, can score and dish, and they’ll be high-lowing teams all weekend if given the chance.
MONTE MORRIS, IOWA STATE
Monte Morris has always has taken care of the ball, and the Cyclones’ junior point guard continues to lead the conference in assists (7.1 per game) while maintaining a league-best assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.13. That’s clean, Man-Man. Last season, Morris played Mr. Big Shot (ask Texas), and his increased scoring (14.2 points) could help the ’Clones stand victorious again. The only concerns in Cyclone Nation about Morris is a bum shoulder and a possible pro career.
JAMEEL MCKAY, IOWA STATE
After becoming a midseason headcase, Jameel McKay is back in Iowa State’s lineup. He returned a force on the boards, grabbing 17 rebs in a blowout win over Kansas State. Whatever issues he had with new coach Steve Prohm seem to be over. The Cyclones get back their shot-blocking force (third best in the Big 12 with 1.8 per game), and they’ll need the former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year to make March special.
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GEORGES NIANG, IOWA STATE
All Georges Niang does is win, win, win. Niang has two Big 12 Tournament Championships in three years. Not bad. If Iowa State is going to three-peat, the senior forward will have to bring his A game. But bulky Niang is nearly impossible to stop when he gets moving, and his jump hook is a beauty. No. 31 is second in the conference in scoring (19.4 points per game), and he can knock down threes (1.5 per game), too. Is the Sprint Center the new Hilton South? Only if Niang is game.
RICO GATHERS, BAYLOR
Rico Gathers is the second-best rebounder in the conference. The 6-foot-8, 275-pound senior forward’s rebounding dipped a little this season (9.1 boards per game versus 11.6 his junior season). Attribute that to fewer minutes — and maybe a focus on football over basketball. The Bears will need Gathers cleaning the glass to make noise in KC.
TAUREAN PRINCE, BAYLOR
Taurean Prince has developed into one of the best scorers in the Big 12 (fourth best, with 15.5 points per game). The 6-foot-7 senior forward does a little bit of everything for the Bears. He’s not a great defender, and he often struggles with his shot, but he has the potential to light up any opponent.
TODDRICK GOTCHER, TEXAS TECH
Tubby Smith’s Texas Tech Red Raiders have shown about as much improvement as you can expect in a loaded Big 12. One of the reasons: Toddrick Gotcher. The senior guard has come on of late, dropping 20 points in a loss to Kansas and 24 in a win over Oklahoma State. He’s a threat from deep (hitting a pair of triples a game), and he had one of the most memorable senior-night moments, proposing to his girlfriend (she said yes). If the Red Raiders have any hope in KC, it’ll be on Gotcher’s back.
JUSTIN EDWARDS AND WESLEY IWUNDU, KANSAS STATE
Justin Edwards has played well for Kansas State, but most nights it hasn’t been enough to propel the Wildcats to a win. The senior guard leads K-State in scoring (12.2 points per game), but he’ll need help, especially from junior forward Wesley Iwundu, who was a Big 12 All-Defensive Team selection and a third team All–Big 12 member, if the Wildcats are going to advance to Thursday.
ISAIAH TAYLOR AND JAVAN FELIX, TEXAS
Isaiah Taylor creates contact better than anyone else in the league, a habit that has earned the junior point guard more trips to the line than anyone else. Taylor has taken advantage, too (knocking down 81.1 percent of his freebies). He’s not a great shooter from the field, but getting to the line has him leading the burnt orange in scoring (15 points). He’s also the team’s best passer (4.7). Taylor is suffering from plantar fasciitis, so he’ll need the help of backcourt mate Javan Felix (11 points per game) if the Horns are going to hook a title.
JEFF NEWBERRY, OKLAHOMA STATE
Jeff Newberry leads the Pokes in scoring (11 points), rebounding (4.7 boards) and steals (1.5). The senior guard stepped up when Phil Forte went down, but he’ll need to break out of his shooting funk for the Cowboys to stay in KC beyond Wednesday night.
MALIQUE TRENT AND CHAUNCEY COLLINS, TCU
Malique Trent has sticky fingers. The Horned Frogs’ sophomore guard leads the Big 12 in steals, with two takeaways a game. TCU is going to need that type of defense, plus the scoring of fellow sophomore Chauncey Collins (11.8 points per game), if their season is to continue past Wednesday.
ISAIAH COUSINS AND JORDAN WOODARD, OKLAHOMA
Buddy Hield gets the headlines, but the Sooners feature a three-headed monster of guards with Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard. Both can score, just not at-will the way Hield does. They’re threats from deep (Woodard 2.1 3-pointers and 12.9 points per game; Cousins 1.8 3-pointers and 13 points). And they can D up — two of the 10 best thieves in the league. That’s a recipe for trouble for anyone challenging OU.
ABDEL NADER AND MATT THOMAS, IOWA STATE
Did you see Abdel Nader posterize Oklahoma State? Find that video. And get ready, KC. The senior forward is on an absolute tear in four of his last six games. In three of those games, he knocked down five 3-pointers. Five 3-pointers in a game. Add in sharpshooting junior Matt Thomas, the second best 3-point shooter in the league (2.5 3-pointers and 10.6 points per game), and the Cyclones could go on a roll.
RYAN SPANGLER, OKLAHOMA
Ryan Spangler may have the worst bro tattoos in the Big 12. Go figure that the senior forward is dominating the glass (9.5 boards per game). When he vanishes, OU struggles. Frustrate him and an early exit for the Sooners isn’t out of the question.
LESTER MEDFORD, BAYLOR
Lester Medford’s ability to share the ball propels the Baylor Bears. The senior guard is dishing 6.8 assists a game — second best in the conference. The senior also takes care of the ball (2.94 assist-to-turnover ratio) and plays good D (1.74 steals).
WAYNE SELDEN JR., KANSAS
Wayne Selden Jr. has fallen into a bit of a slump. Nothing has been as good as his 33-point explosion in an overtime win over the Kentucky Wildcats. The potential exists for the junior guard to go off, as he did in the home finale against Iowa State with 16 points and three 3-pointers. If he finds consistency, KU will find itself playing into the weekend.
DEVIN WILLIAMS, WEST VIRGINIA
Those goggles! Junior forward Devin Williams is a competitor, fighting on the boards (9.1 per game), and he’ll fight to the death for Bob Huggins. He’s a hustle guy, and he’ll outwork anyone who doesn’t come to play.
